Strategy · The calendar moves money

Look at data, not sayings.

Use 76 years of numbers to separate patterns that are still alive from those that are already dead, and learn how to put them into your own trading rules.

43 of 77Times the S&P 500 fell in September (since 1950)

$1.17M : $34KResult of investing $10,000 only in Nov–Apr vs only in May–Oct (USD)

90% → 23%Change in the share of total gains from the 4 turn-of-month days

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Take away one number, one insight, one twist and one action from every lesson.

The calendar moves moneySeasonality Investing

8 lessons · One number, one insight, one twist, one action per lesson

The calendar moves money: 8 lessons on stock seasonality

Data, not sayings. Use 76 years of numbers to separate patterns that are still alive from those that are already dead, and learn how to put them into your own trading rules.

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Map of the 8 lessons

Eight questions, eight one-line answers.

Published lessons are ready to read now, and the rest will open in turn.

Lesson 1

Why is September so hated?

What exactly is seasonality?

"It is a tilt in probability"

Lesson 2

Sell in May was real. And then it cooled

Are Nov–Apr and May–Oct really different?

"It was different, but the gap narrowed"

Lesson 3

Santa comes, and January speaks

Do year-end effects still hold today?

"The January barometer has weakened and the small-cap effect is dead"

Lesson 4

Stocks were strong on the days money flowed in

Why do turn-of-month and presidential cycle patterns appear?

"Fund-flow patterns disappear when the structure changes"

Lesson 5

Every industry has its own seasons

Which sectors are strong in which season?

"Energy in winter, tech stocks the exception"

Lesson 6

Korea's market calendar was made by taxes

What causes KOSPI and KOSDAQ patterns?

"Rules make them and rules change them"

Lesson 7

Why do patterns die? So how do you use them?

How to verify them and use them as filters

"Condition, action, invalidation: three lines"

Lesson 8

People who made money with the calendar

What did the masters look at when they traded?

"The calendar sets the window only; trade after confirmation"

Five ideas to take away from the course

Use the calendar only as a filter.

These are five messages repeated throughout the 8 lessons.

Seasonality is not a prediction but a tilt in probability

A 44% win rate in September does not mean "it will fall"; it means "lower your expectations."

Only patterns with a cause survive

Patterns rooted in taxes, fiscal year-end closing and real demand remain, while turn-of-month and day-of-week effects with no cause have disappeared since 2006.

Known patterns weaken as they get traded

The gap for Sell in May narrowed from +5.85 percentage points to +2.11 percentage points, and over the last 10 years there is no difference.

Korea's January effect was made by taxes

Because of the major-shareholder tax record date, people sell in December and buy in January. If the rule changes, the pattern changes.

The calendar is a filter, not a signal

All six masters used the calendar only to set the window and confirmed their trades with trend and flows.

For educational purposes only, not investment advice. Past statistics do not guarantee future returns.