Formulas
Future value factor FV = ((1 + r)^n − 1) ÷ r (contributions at year end)Same take-home: Roth = contribution × (1 − tax now) × FV · Traditional = contribution × FV × (1 − tax in retirement)Same contribution: Roth = contribution × FV · Traditional = contribution × FV × (1 − tax in retirement) + taxable accountTaxable account = savings value − capital gains rate × (savings value − savings contributed), where savings = contribution × tax nowBreak-even retirement tax rate = 1 − (Roth value − taxable account) ÷ (contribution × FV)Key insight: on the same-take-home basis the break-even rate equals your current rate. If you expect a lower rate in retirement, Traditional wins; a higher rate, Roth wins; equal rates tie. Roth also has no required minimum distributions for the original owner of a Roth IRA, and qualified withdrawals do not raise your taxable income or Medicare premiums.
2026 IRA eligibility rules
The IRA limit is $7,500 for 2026 ($8,600 at age 50 or older), shared between Roth and Traditional IRAs. Roth contributions phase out at MAGI $153,000 to $168,000 (single or head of household) and $242,000 to $252,000 (married filing jointly); for married filing separately who lived with a spouse the range is $0 to $10,000. If you are inside a range, the reduced limit follows the IRS worksheet method: the limit is reduced by limit × (MAGI − lower end) ÷ range width, with the reduction rounded up to the next $10 and a $200 minimum. The Traditional IRA deduction only phases out if you or your spouse is covered by a workplace plan: $81,000 to $91,000 (single), $129,000 to $149,000 (joint, you are covered) or $242,000 to $252,000 (joint, you are not covered but your spouse is). Anyone with earned income can make a nondeductible Traditional IRA contribution at any income.
Limitations: the model assumes a constant tax rate, one contribution each year at year end, a constant return and no fees. It ignores state-specific rules, the saver's credit, Roth conversion, Social Security taxation and required minimum distributions. 401(k) comparisons use the same logic but have different limits ($24,500 in 2026, with no income cap for Roth 401(k) contributions).